Forecasting

Offer a few checkable forecasts supported by the leading explanation, or conditional scenarios if alternatives remain viable. Choose time windows from the actual event calendar and causal mechanism; state the as-of date and deadlines.

Specify actor, observable event, time window, and confidence or main condition. Distinguish already scheduled events from predictions about their outcomes. Include a plausible counter-move where relevant and an observation that would materially weaken the leading explanation. Do not claim one missed probabilistic forecast logically disproves it. If no defensible forecast follows, say so.